Here comes the bomb with real loud sound and has reached to every publishing house in world and online blogging world. Eric Jackson an analyst on CNBC has claimed that Facebook will vanish in another 5 to 8 years and a new’s can’t be better than this. On 18th May Facebook has launched a $100 billion IPO and in another 25 days an analyst is saying that Facebook will disappear by 2020. That’s a pretty sensational claim.
Yesterday only We published an article “Facebook in search of their role in Internet ruled by Smartphone and Tablets“ and We are hearing that an analyst has claimed that Facebook will disappear in another five years. Eric Jackson has not made this claim about Facebook but also about Google. He has written an “Here is why Google and Facebook will might disappear in another five years” published on Forbes on 30th of May and then in an interview with Bloomberg he made the same claim.
No doubt that he has a level of comprehension about web but not about Internet but only of a level. What are the premises on which he think’s that Facebook and Google will disappear.
1. Eric Jackson is using Yahoo as a premise that the way Yahoo was never able to transform them-self from web 1.0 to web 2.0 and Google was not successful in milking the opportunity of Web 2.0 that is social. In the same way Facebook which is a company of the era of Web 2.0 will not be able to successfully transform them-self in to the world on Internet which is ruled by Smartphone and Tablets.
2. He also think’s that all the money which Google and Facebook has will not be able to save them-self because Yahoo also has all the money but today Yahoo is just one tenth of its Market Capitalization of 2000. Google was never able to make a serious dent in the Social Media or web2.0.
3. Facebook has no feasible business model even for their desktop based website and it will be really difficult for them to dominate internet in the world of Smartphone and Tablets.
What are some serious faults in his analysis?
1. Using premise of Yahoo is seriously faulty. Yahoo never failed because of the advent of web 2.0 . Yahoo was having a full fledged social media in the late nineties inside of Yahoo chat box. Yahoo failure has nothing to do with Web 2.o but it has a serious relation with Leadership, Culture and Focus of the company.
All the Social Media website from Facebook, Orkut, LinkedIn and Twitter didn’t cost billions to develop. They were develop by one or two people on their laptops. Orkut was developed by his Orkut Bourkutiyan in his spare time while working in Google. It is never about billions of money but it is about undersatnding the basic nature of Internet and how it is transforming?
2. I have seen that all these analyst use word’s like web 1.0 and web 2.0 and the death of web but how much they comprehend web1.0 and web2.0 is tough to say because they never talk about the two point’s.
1. Flow of data on internet.
2. Devices which can support this flow data.
The basic difference between web1.0 and web 2.0 was not social but it was the flow of data and devices on which people were basically accessing Internet that is Computers. There is a great difference between the computer which were used in late nineties and 2002-03.
Samsung Galaxy s III has 2 GB of RAM and 80 GB of memory. My Compaq Laptop in 2006 has 256 MB memory and 20 GB hard disk. In another three months of 2006 only I found that it is obsolete. So Social Media was basically a part of web since it started.
Google failure of not able to handle social media successfully because Google very luckily allowed Orkut to die and I am happy that Google buzz never worked and for whole 2011 Google+ was a graveyard.
I think Google is in the best position to dominate the Internet in the world of Smartphone and Tablets.
1. Google has Android and Motorola.
2. Google has world finest and most famous search engine which no one can compete.
3. Android has a evolved ecosystem.
4. Google is the master of business model providing free internet services to masses. No one has been able to duplicate it.
Why Facebook will not vanish in 2020?
1. Facebook is not Yahoo.
2. Facebook is a company which has focused completely on product and user experience. This is the major reason of enormous growth of Facebook.
3. Having 900 million user’s is not something which happened daily. Online population is one billion people out of seven billion and 900 million are on Facebook. What kind of clout Facebook has no one has an idea. Eric Jackson is talking about 2020. Facebook is already the most sophisticated data gathering and analyzing tool ever created by Human. In another three years Facebook will be a machine which knows One billion people behavior.
4. The strategic value of Facebook is very high. When I say strategic value I mean value of Facebook for Companies, US government and one of its partner Microsoft. This value is too high than the business potential of Facebook.